In an LHD on Sports Blog tradition, I am once again conveying my thoughts on who I would vote for if I had a BBWAA ballot for the 2025 National Baseball Hall of Fame.
The BBWAA vote will be revealed on Major League Baseball (MLB) Network on Tuesday, January 21, 2025. The Hall of Fame vote reveal remains one of the most anticipated moments on the baseball calendar and certainly of the offseason. Here is the 2025 National Baseball Hall of Fame Candidates Eligible for vote (via Baseball Reference with prior year percentage total for returning candidates). 75% of all ballots cast must include the players name for induction.
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| Induction Weekend 2024 |
As most readers probably know, the actual voting committee is the Baseball Writers' Association of America (BBWAA). Prior to 2016, once a member, always a vote. In 2016, several changes to the voting process were made (see my related Blog here) culling the list of voters to those who had covered the game in the prior 10 years. This played out to remove a number of small vote ballots and increase percentages for those on the bubble.
There are a few overarching factors to cover before we get to the specifics.
1) A major, controversial specter over the Hall will continue to be how to handle candidates associated with Performance Enhancing Drug (PED) use in baseball primarily in the 1990s and early 2000s, an era for which many players accused are now on the Hall of Fame ballot although the number is dwindling with Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Sammy Sosa, Mark McGwire, and Gary Sheffield running out of eligibility. There are players whose on-field performance likely merits election, however because of their associated with substances that enhanced their performance, some members (a minority) of the BBWAA have been hesitant to cast votes their way. At least in the 75% needed for induction. Because the official voting rules include the words "integrity, sportsmanship, and character," their reluctance is justified in my mind. For my selection, I will not presume guilt, but if there are legal findings, firsthand accounts (including Mitchell Report) or strong anecdotal evidence of PED use, I will strongly weigh against voting for the candidate. You can count me in the "The PED STJ" type here in a blog I wrote. A constant I hear is "how can it be a Hall of Fame without Bonds, Clemens, Pete Rose, etc." Their accomplishments, records, videos, etc. are more than prominent in the museum portion of the Hall of Fame and museum, but down by the plaques, you won't find them there. Did the crime, do the time.
2) A change in consideration for me is how to assess pitchers. Whereas the 300-win plateau with a low ERA reflective of the dead ball, or pitcher dominated, eras prior to 1970 used to be a norm, it's become increasingly more difficult to get wins in the era of specialty relievers with starters leaving the game before the end of the sixth inning many times in close games. Conversely, however, one would think this would benefit starting pitchers ERA by seldom going through a lineup more than twice in some cases, rarely more than three times. Also, after many years of closers not being strongly considered, Mariano Rivera became the first and only to date unanimous inductee to the Hall, along with high save count Trevor Hoffman and Lee Smith in recent years. The doors have opened a bit in that regard. In the end, for pitchers, I strongly weigh dominance over a reasonable period of time, along with Cy Young Awards, All-Star games, win titles, career saves, and ERA.
3) There is also first and last ballot bias. First ballot candidates some BBWAA voters seem reticent to vote in to protect some sort of integrity of being a "first ballot hall of famer". Evidence, three voters who did not include Ken Griffey Jr. in 2016. Likewise, when a player is on his last ballot (as Tim Raines was in 2017, Edgar Martinez in 2019, and Larry Walker in 2020) voters who previously withheld a vote tend to pay a bit more attention to their candidacy considering it's a final shot and vote favorably.
So how do I sort through very worthy candidates that each has at least some argument for a vote for induction? Here's some parameters I use
1) I don't play games with first ballot / last ballot. I may sway in between as I hear arguments, but I'm not going to withhold someone I know I think should get in, nor be swayed via a soft corner in the last year. Example, Schilling, was not a proponent earlier but more I heard arguments I came around and began to vote for him. Similar with Andruw Jones and now, Bobby Abreu (spoiler alert)
2) I don't hold OFF THE FIELD issues (to an extent) against the player. Don't care that Schilling is unlikable or has some political view that is disagreeable. I do need to consider Domestic Violence as that becomes an integrity issue. I do not vote for Vizquel anyway, so not really an issue on this ballot.
3) Per the above, not me for PED guys. You're welcome to vote for them I'm not. Even if Selig, who shouldn't be in, is in (see number 6 below).
4) I don't handicap candidates if they played in Coors Field (Colorado) or DH's or were on good teams for win. Stats are stats, the eye test stands, it is what it is, games are played there, value exists wherever.
5) I struggle voting for candidates with good cumulative stats but never great. This makes me look for high finishes in MVP and All-Star appearances. Not necessarily having to win an MVP as there may have been a candidate like Shohei Ohtani who was a complete unicorn, but consistent top 5 or 10 finishes. Silver Sluggers and Gold Gloves help. If you hit 30 HR for 15 years but everyone else hitting 45+ it's a sign of the times. Also, bold stats, leading the league in meaningful things, matters.
6) Comparisons to "this guy is in, so should this guy" or "if he isn't in, this guy can't be". It's candidate against criteria. I actually looked at Lance Berkman as a guy not in as someone who should be exceeded at a minimum for discussion and quickly realized stat comparisons to him for a below 5 percent first ballot guy is tough because his numbers hold against guys already in, yet he isn't even close.
7) I lean toward classic stats (Average, HR, Runs, RBI, Steals, okay to combing OBP/SLG for OPS). WAR I don't emphasize, rewards longer play, doesn't have eyes, I don't know who the replacement is and while I agree it can be an assessor, it's not for me. So don't say "if this player has X WAR, and this player has X+10 WAR, I must change my mind". Eye test trumps all that.
8) As stated above, pitching is tough. Starters need to find themselves in Cy Young Top 10s. Relievers must meet the Lee Smith or Bruce Sutter entry bar. Few do.
9) I take postseason stats as gravy, not essential. If a guy is close but went off in the postseason that could edge them across the vote threshold. If they were borderline but not good in postseason, nothing taken away. Sample size and team has much more to do with it than a player's Hall of Fame worthiness.
With a limit of ten players on a ballot, here are the players I would put on my ballot (in order of my credibility).
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| Ichiro will be the first Japanese Born National Baseball Hall of Famer |
1) Ichiro Suzuki - He will be the first Japanese-born player in the National Baseball Hall of Fame, and it will happen in 2025. Starting his MLB career at age 27 AND he can be touted as the Major Professional League Hit King.
Factors against him: On base percentage, OPS a little pedestrian if compared against others on the ballot (like a Bobby Abreu). Second half of career tailed off a bit, but he was 38 with 8 more seasons left.
He'll get in first ballot with probably 95% of the votes or more. No further discussion needed.
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| Billy the Kid |
Factors against him: Only 900 career IP, bad postseason numbers, closer bias.
Wagner has increased appreciably in each of the last several years needing just a handful of ballots (or non voting members to roll off). The ballot is not as clogged as years past. I feel like this is the year.
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| K-Rod shut them down a lot |
Factors against him: Fewer than 1000 career IP, closer bias.
Only in his third year of eligibility not making much traction. Maybe Wagner making it in gets him more eyes. Starting to lean that he'll be similar to a Jeff Kent and languish well below 50%.
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| Beltran electrified crowds with his tools |
4) Carlos Beltran - Like K-Rod appearing on his third ballot and he stacks up well against most objective criteria. What most stands out are his 435 HR which currently rates Top 50 (career RBI Top 50 also). Top 35 total bases. Played all facets well with over 300 career steals and three Gold Gloves. Led the league in CF assists four times. A couple of Silver Sluggers which means something. Comparable career paths to Andre Dawson and Dave Winfield who are well respected HOFers.
Factors against him: Never a leader in categories for a season, just two Top 10 MVP finishes. Bounced around teams which sometimes doesn't give voters an anchor. Also was the center of the Astros sign-stealing scandal.
He played in big markets which gets media attention I think he likely gets in within the first five years. Decent showing over 45% his first year to 57% the next. Some voters may still be holding back a vote for the sign stealing.
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| Andruw Jones was unmatched with the glove |
5) Andruw Jones - Power, speed, and defense, he was a five-tool player. Started his career at 19, but wore out at Age 35 (really ordinary after 30), he still hit well over 400 HR. His .254 batting average really drags him down, with a lack of huge walk numbers it leaves him only .337 OBP. His defense was his calling card but also won a Silver Slugger and narrowly missed the MVP in 2005 to Albert Pujols. I'm now for him for the leading the league stats and MVP finishes. Five great years in a seven-year span and 153 games or more 11 straight years. Just on the border due to longevity, but I've flipped my vote to a yes within the last couple of years, he meets the criteria.
Factors against him: Low batting average, barely was a factor after age 30.
After two years of barely staying on the ballot, is starting to at least get discussion. The subsequent years were 19.4%, 33.9%, 41.4%, 58.1%, and 61.6% last year. Kind of running out of years only getting a few percent. I believe will get his last year on the ballot.
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| Big Train CC delivered whenever given the ball |
6) CC Sabathia - First ballot I was initially outside but now lean toward in. I always like me some bold stats (led the league) and here we are with two time leading the league in Wins, also was a horse leading the league multiple times with complete games and shutouts. Add a Cy Young Award, four other Top 5 finishes. 250 wins (it's the new 300), 3000 strikeouts. Postseason career was long mostly with the Yankees. Just too much to pass on.
Factors against him: ERA (the era of guys with ERAs around 3.00 is over, 3.75 isn't bad), not necessarily an era where he was THE top 2 or 3 pitcher (like a Pedro or Randy) but nobody's selling him as an inner circle guy.
He's trending really well I think he gets in first ballot. Playing in New York and lots of postseason helps him a lot as opposed to a Felix Hernandez who might have been a better peak pitcher but burned out. Fast.
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| Abreu is underrated by most measures |
7) Bobby Abreu - Here is one where I flipped. The overall stat impressiveness overcomes the factors against him. If you look at all the 2025 NBHOF candidates OPS, he is tops among players not associated with PEDs. Switch hitter with eight years in a row of over 100 walks, was durable playing 162 twice during his career. Modest power but produced 100 RBI in eight seasons. Good speed as well with 400 career SBs. But no Top 10 MVP finishes, one Silver Slugger and one Gold Glove and only two All Star games. I think overlooked but worthy in the end.
Factors against him: Never seemed elite related to peers (see AS Games, SS, GG), played for a lot of teams, not a lot of home run power.
Doesn't seem to be upticking very rapidly and likely to go through the ten years never getting more than 40% This is probably my toughest omission but a line has to be drawn somewhere.
First three out
8) Felix Hernandez - Here's a guy I'll be looking at more closely but out for now. I think from a trajectory standpoint he was a no brainer through the first 11 years of his career. Then the bottom just fell out. It's a classic how do you weight dominance for 7 years, like Pedro or Halladay dominance, followed by a cliff. Has a lot of bold text like ERA, wins, Cy Young, a perfect game. Torn. But will do some waiting.
Factors against him: The aforementioned cliff which pulls away from career stats like wins just a buck 69. No postseason appearances.
I hope he stays on and gets some attention in the new era where you're not going to get 300 game winners. But doubt he gets in.
9) Jimmy Rollins - Rollins stacks up favorably to 2023 inductee Scott Rolen. Rollins at least has an MVP (but not that many other sniffs of MVP Top 10s.). Rollins's league leading stats focus on AB, runs, triples, and SB. On base percentage of .324 is not so good for a leadoff guy. A few Gold Gloves but seemed more lifetime achievement than highlight reel stuff. I don't like to compare one to one with Hall of Famers, but I look to Barry Larkin as an entry level offensive minded, modern era SS and Rollins isn't that close to him. So I'm passing now.
Factors against him: Lack of several outstanding seasons, just three All-Star appearances, doesn't seem to excel over his peers in his era.
Under 10% the first year, upticked a few in year 2. I hope he gets momentum and consideration in the second half of his candidacy but not my vote at this point.
As for the rest of the ballot...
Many of the remaining repeat candidates fall into the PED category. Their stats are more than deserving, even before they might have juiced, but would not get my vote): Manny Ramirez, Andy Pettitte and Alex Rodriguez. All would easily be in without it except maybe Pettitte who would be close anyway (would not get my vote even without PEDs).
Torii Hunter and Mark Buehrle just seem like guys who had memorable moments, but not the consistent greatness worthy of the Hall. The only reason you might think Buehrle is really the lack of other starting pitchers perhaps we should judge against new criteria. One of these two may fall off if some full ballot guys don't have room anymore given that only one cleared last year (Scott Rolen) and Beltre is joined by a few other worthy guys.
Chase Utley and David Wright believe both will garner a good chunk of votes and get continued discussion. Utley for me was a really good, but not great player. Strangely fell below 2000 hits for his career. .275 hitter, under 300 HR. A really good four-year span (Top 15 MVP from 2006-2009) but not enough to put him above the line. Voters have him trending toward election. Wright of course was ravaged by injury after age 30. I believe if he continued healthy and demonstrated the level of play, he had in his early 20s into his early 30s he would have moved into the favorites list. It's a painful (no pun intended)"no" for me right now but will listen to the debates over the next few years and may change my mind.
The only other returning candidate not discussed is Omar Vizquel. I just don't see enough offense. The defense was there. There's a long history of middle infielders leaning on good defense and good enough offense to get in, but I don't see Vizquel in that category. Only a .336 OBP, worst of this pool of candidates besides Torii Hunter. Dropped to below 20% of the ballot last year don't see his candidacy gaining much now in his seventh year.
A couple of other intriguing newcomers Dustin Pedroia and Ian Kinsler present some interesting cases for middle infielders. Pedroia and MVP, ROY, some Gold Gloves, almost batted .300. But no 2000 hits. Not even 150 HR. Just a good player. Kinsler a little more pop, still no 2000 hits (but closer). Some Gold Gloves and AS appearances. Only led the league in a couple of stats: PA/AB one year. Good All-Star players both of them.
I don't believe any of the other newcomers will get the 5% needed to stay on the ballot for 2025 besides Ichiro and Sabathia (if they don't make it) and Felix
So, my opinions aside, I see Ichiro and Wagner as locks. Sabathia as a safe in. Beltran and Andruw Jones inch closer and will get in eventually. Really getting close for Andruw. I don't see a scenario where this class is more than three.
Here is my mock ballot:
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