Super Bowl Prediction

Betting information courtesy of 5dimes.com at the time of post (this blog has no affiliation with that site)

February 5, 2012: 18:29 EST
New York Giants (+2.5, +123) vs. New England Patriots (-2.5, -143) O/U 53.5
A rematch of the regular season and recent Super Bowl. The Packers unpredicted implosion withstanding, this matchup represents the best two teams right now. Statistically the two worst defenses in Super Bowl History (375+ yards given up per game). But the Manning/Brady rematch, New York vs. Boston sports rivalry, ghosts of David Tyree's catch, Manning's scramble, Brady's legacy all hang in the balance. But let's get to the X's and O's.

I have some concerns about the Gronkowski injury. That being said, Aaron Hernandez has stepped up and made plays all over the place. The Giants running game took a step or two forward a few weeks ago, but now looks lost again. I think Belichick can exploit this and formulate a game plan to slow the Giants offense. The real key to the game is Brady's protection against that determined Giants offensive line. And whether the Giants "bend but don't break" offense has success defending in the red zone. In the end, I think they do. Brady's been a little more sloppy with the ball than I've seen the past few years, and he's going to be getting off the turf a lot and maybe forcing the ball. Little Manning gets his second title and this is the last Brady appearance in the Super Bowl. Final Prediction: Giants 23, Patriots 21.

Gambling summary :

Week one moved my cash from 1200 (100 per betting prop) to 1470 (big $$ on the Broncos money line). Second week was a push ending at 1492. The next week was huge, hitting 5 of 6 props (up 324) on the Conference Championships moving to 1816. I'm tempted to introduce more props in lieu of Super Bowl tradition but will stick to the money line, ATS, and O/U. All New York, and under.